Program Outline

I. The Uses and Limitations of Intuition
Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize Winner explains to senior leaders what he has learned about judgments and decision making, and how it revolutionizes our ideas of leadership and knowledge-based processes. We will examine how the mind makes judgments. It’s a good news and bad news situation. The intuition we use to make judgments is an excellent guide some of the time, but gives a distorted view at other times.

• Learn to see the world differently.
  
• Explore the uses and limitations of intuition.
  
• Recognize situations where our intuition can be distorted.
  
• Learn strategies to combat biases and delusions that compromise our judgment.
  

Practice Session
To better explore the limitations of intuition, we will participate in the same study used by the Nobel Prize winning researchers. The study uses questions to reveal how the mind works and how we view the world around us.

II. Strategies For Turning Data Into Information
Today, we are faced with a torrent of raw data. Trapped in that flow are vital clues to the state of our organizations, and essential building blocks that can help prepare real forecasts and data driven decisions. Business analytics have boosted the profits of many Fortune 500 companies. We will examine proven techniques to cope with the data flow.

• Define different types of data.
  
• Evaluate the usefulness of these data types.
  
• Explore strategies for turning data into information.
  
• Use the data analysis roadmap.
  

Case Study: To Launch or Not
A three year, $300M program with national security implications must launch by tomorrow morning to meet the schedule. The VP wants your final launch approval. Is it a go? This case study explores turning data into information

III. Influencing Visually
The pace of today's world requires that information be conveyed quickly, efficiently and in a way that compels attention. Edward Tufte is a world-renowned expert who has isolated specific methods that give measurable competitive advantage in today’s business environment. This module contains essential secrets for using data to convey information and help create consensus and alignment on what actions to take.

• Discover the principles behind the effective use of visual displays.
  
• Learn how to use visual displays to influence decision makers.
  
• Practice using these principles on a realistic situation.
  

Case Study: Dr. Snow and the London Cholera Epidemic
This case takes us back to London in the 1850s. People are dying in a cholera epidemic, and Dr. Snow thinks he has a solution. Can he convey his knowledge to a skeptical audience in a way that will allow them to understand and weigh the evidence themselves? This case on influencing visually takes us back to London in the 1850s.

Case Study: To Invest or Not
Your boss manages an investment fund. In one hour he intends to invest millions in a troubled company he is sure will eventually recover. Do you agree? How will you influence this leader?

IV. Why Great Leaders Don’t Take Yes for an Answer
Informed individuals can turn data into information through analysis, but the team must then consider that information to gain real knowledge, decide what to do and align on the right actions. Harvard's Michael Roberto tells executives how to be leaders and create collaboration. Culture has a profound influence on how people work together and what they can achieve. The leader is the key to establishing a group’s culture.

• Create team collaboration to engage and align the activities of the team and turn information into effective action.
  
• Explore strategies for harnessing information to make accurate forecasts.
  
• Learn principles for correctly assessing risk.
  

Case Study: The Final Flight of the Columbia
A state-of-the-art interactive case study that gives leaders a chance to watch decision making and the culture inside NASA as they perform risk assessment on the insulation problem that led to the destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. This case study provides discoveries in establishing a creative culture to become better informed, achieve alignment, and take effective action.

V. Decision Trees
Decision trees are a crucial decision support tool that uses a graph to map alternatives and to identify the strategy most likely to reach a goal. This is essential to making sound judgments.

• Be able to construct a decision tree for a decision scenario.
  
• Understand where to get the data to begin the analysis of the decision tree.
  
• Discuss how to use the tool back home.
  

Case Study: Freemark Abbey
This year's profits hang on the outcome of one crucial decision. This case will show how to use decision trees to make informed decisions. Is the gamble worth the risk?

Case Study: Merck's $1B Bet on New Product Development
Merck is considering an ambitious new development program. It is a $1B bet. Should they take it? What is the size and likelihood of the payoff?

VI. Delusions of Success
A Nobel Prize Winner looks back over a lifetime of research and consulting. He examines the track record of those big ambitious projects that attempt to create products or services that clearly exceed anything attempted before. He finds that three quarters of these projects fail to live up to the promises that were made when the projects were approved. In retrospect, the initial proposals were much too optimistic. In fact, this Nobel laureate can only think of one word to describe this degree over optimism: delusional. We will review the expert’s best advice on how leaders can evaluate claims and proposals to gauge their strengths and weaknesses. How do you assess the real risks or payoffs in a new proposal?

• Examine the weak points of most proposals.
  
• Understand root causes of delusional optimism, including those inherent to the human mind and those arising from the culture of the group.
  
• Learn what questions to ask to uncover the weaknesses in a proposal.
  
• Develop a group’s capabilities to create strong proposals and assess real risks.
  

Case Study: Creating Growth at Dry Creek Vineyards
The CEO of a company with a 15 year legacy of double digit growth rates looks to the future and sees that growth will end unless some tough choices are made. He must decide how to position the company. Out of the blue, an opportunity appears. Is this the answer he is looking for? Is it as good a deal as it looks?

VII. Risk Management
All innovative new approaches involve some element of risk. We will examine traditional methods of defining and assessing risk. Perceptions of risk depend on the frame of reference of the observer. We will examine the ground-breaking research on the topic of framing and how feelings of risk can be distorted.

• Define risk and look at strategies for mitigating it.
  
• Examine how perceptions of risk vary according to the frame of reference of the observer using Framing Theory.
  

Case Study: New product risk
The MPCD project has uncovered a risk. Should we recall products in the field, or wait for customers to bring defective products back for repair?

VIII. Applications
The benefits of this class depend on using these concepts back on the job. We will discuss how to apply the concepts and prepare a personal action plan.