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I. The Uses and Limitations of Intuition Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner explains to senior leaders what he has learned about judgments and decision making, and how it revolutionizes our ideas of leadership and knowledge-based processes. We will examine how the mind makes judgments. It's a good news and bad news situation. The intuition we use to make judgments is an excellent guide some of the time, but gives a distorted view at other times. In this section you will:
Practice Session: To better explore the limitations of intuition, we will participate in the same study used by the Nobel Prize winning researchers. The study uses questions to reveal how the mind works and how we view the world around us. II. Strategies For Turning Data Into Information Today, we are faced with a torrent of raw data. Trapped in that flow are vital clues to the state of our organizations, and essential building blocks that can help prepare real forecasts and data driven decisions. Business analytics have boosted the profits of many Fortune 500 companies. We will examine proven techniques to cope with the data flow. In this section you will:
Case Study - To Launch or Not: A three year, $300M program with national security implications must launch by tomorrow morning to meet the schedule. The VP wants your final launch approval. Is it a go? This case study explores turning data into information. III. Influencing Visually The pace of today's world requires that information be conveyed quickly, efficiently and in a way that compels attention. Edward Tufte is a world-renowned expert who has isolated specific methods that give measurable competitive advantage in today's business environment. This module contains essential secrets for using data to convey information and help create consensus and alignment on what actions to take. Topics covered in this section include:
Case Study - Dr. Snow and the London Cholera Epidemic: This case takes us back to London in the 1850s. People are dying in a cholera epidemic, and Dr. Snow thinks he has a solution. Can he convey his knowledge to a skeptical audience in a way that will allow them to understand and weigh the evidence themselves? Case Study - To Invest or Not: Your boss manages and investment fund. In one hour he intends to invest millions in a troubled company he is sure will eventually recover. Do you agree? Ho will you influence this leader? IV. Why Great Leaders Don't Take Yes for an Answer Informed individuals can turn data into information through analysis, but the team must then consider that information to gain real knowledge, decide what to do, and align on the right actions. Harvard's Michael Roberto tells executives how to be leaders and create collaboration. Culture has a profound influence on how people work together and what they can achieve. The leader is the key to establishing a group's culture. You will learn to:
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Case Study - The Final Flight of the Columbia: A state-of-the-art interactive case study that gives leaders a chance to watch decision making and the culture inside NASA as they perform risk assessment on the insulation problem that led to the destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. This case study provides discoveries in establishing a creative culture to become better informed, achieve alignment, and take effective action. V. Decision Trees Decision trees are a crucial decision support tool that uses a graph to map alternatives and to identify the strategy most likely to reach a goal. This is essential to making sound judgments. In this section you will:
Case Study - Freemark Abbey: This year's profits hang on the outcome of one crucial decision. This case will show how to use decision trees to make informed decisions. Is the gamble worth the risk? Case Study - Merck's $1B Bet on New Product Development: Merck is considering an ambitious new development program. It is a $1B bet. Should they take it? What is the size and likelihood of the payoff? VI. Delusions of Success A Nobel Prize winner looks back over a lifetime of research and consulting. He examines the track record of those big ambitious projects that attempt to create products or services that clearly exceed anything attempted before. He finds that three quarters of these projects fail to live up to the promises that were made when the projects were approved. In retrospect, the initial proposals were much too optimistic. In fact, this Nobel laureate can only think of one word to describe this degree of over-optimism: delusional. We will review the expert's best advice on how leaders can evaluate claims and proposals to gauge their strengths and weaknesses. How do you assess the real risks or payoffs in a new proposal? You will:
Case Study - Creating Growth at Dry Creek Vineyards: The CEO of a company with a 15 year legacy of double digit growth rates looks to the future and sees growth that will end unless some tough choices are made. He must decide how to position the company. Out of the blue, an opportunity appears. Is this the answer he is looking for? Is it as good a deal as it looks? VII. Risk Management All innovative new approaches involve some element of risk. We will examine traditional methods of defining and assessing risk. Perceptions of risk depend on the frame of reference of the observer. We will examine the ground-breaking research on the topic of framing and how feelings of risk can be distorted. You will:
Case Study - New Product Risk: The MPCD project has uncovered a risk. Should we recall products in the field, or wait for customers to bring defective products back for repair? VIII. Applications The benefits of this class depend on using these concepts back on the job. We will discuss how to apply the concepts and prepare a personal action plan. |